April 07, 2007

What It Means If the Button Is Pushed

An horrific scenario. From What It Means If the Button Is Pushed:

Some of those involved in formulating policy in the face of the anticipated Iranian nuclear threat are convinced that a nuclear war can be won, a nuclear strike is survivable, and an active and optimistic society can be rebuilt. Such claims are generally based on game theory and war games that would result in a severe blow to the Israeli population, but one that we could live with. Anyone wishing to adopt these optimistic scenarios should look at the estimates of the damage that a nuclear strike in the heart of Tel Aviv would wreak. They are based on a study by U.S. nuclear scientists who used data collected during nuclear testing in the U.S. If a single 100-kiloton bomb fell in greater Tel Aviv, out of 2.5 million residents, about 500,000 would be killed by the explosion and 1 million would be injured. It is easy to guess what would happen if several nuclear bombs were dropped. The ensuing radiation could not only double and triple the number of fatalities, but also render the affected areas uninhabitable for years.

Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Yitzhak Yaakov was head of research and development in the Israel Defense Forces.